What just happened?

What’s going on. More excitement has arguably happened in the Welsh Assembly in the last two days than in the previous 5 years.

Yesterday, a coup happened in the UKIP group. However, today we saw the coronation a blocking of Carwyn Jones as the confirmed First Miinister of Wales. Rhun ap Iorwerth nominated his party leader, Leanne Wood for First Minster. Surprisingly, bith the Tories and Kippers voted for Leanne, giving her the backing of 29 AMs. The exact samr as Carwyn.

What’s it all about?

Of course Plaid don’t aim to govern with 12 AMs. There is no agreement for a rainbow coalition either. This is a nessage to an arrogant Labour party, who wouldnt talk and compromise for support. a minority government that acts like one that has a cleate mandate. with 30% of the vote, they will have to learn to listen. The events of today might remind Labour that its good to talk.


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Ieuan to go

Picture: Plaid Cymru

So, Ieuan Wyn Jones has announced that he will go in the first half of this Assembly term. I doubt I’m the first one to raise the question, “who will be in the running?”

First of all I should consider whether this is a good thing for the Party.  I was intending to wait until Carwyn Jones had announced his government before blogging about why Ieuan should go.  Yes, Ieuan led the party into a coalition government for the first time, and had served as Deputy First Minister from 2007 to 2011.  And yes it was Plaid with him at the helm who secured a referendum on ‘more powers to Wales’ – all of which, achievements and milestones.

However, between 2000 and 2011, Plaid has slipped from a strong second Party in Welsh politics, to a weak third.  1999 was a strong showing, maybe a swell of support for due to the creation of the new Assembly, and a sense of pride in our new fledgling democracy.  However the following 3 election weren’t to live up to the success of the first.  It is certainly time for Plaid

Eleven years is a very long time to lead a party, and it certainly time for Ieuan to step aside.  Plaid needs to identify its purpose, what will its role be in this decade?  What is the next step in the national project?  So, who then could possibly take over from Ieuan?

Here are, who I think could be contenders (in no particular preference):

Rhodri Glyn Thomas:  This would not be a step forward for the Party.  I believe this would be much of the same, it would be a continuation of what we’ve had over the last decade.  However, he could be a possible stop-gap untill 2016, when Adam Price might return to Welsh politics.

Simon Thomas:  Although he is a newbie to the Assembly, a novice he is not.  Former MP and special advisor to the previous Welsh government, Simon certainly could be what Plaid needs to take it forward.

Leanne Wood: Could Leanne, who is on the left-wing of the Party, win enough support to lead the Party.  A few have already suggested that she could be what the Party needs to win in the Valleys and North East Wales.  I for one don’t think that it’ll be as easy as that.

Dafydd Elis Thomas:  Of course lets not forget the former Presiding officer.  Never one to shy away, could Dafydd be tempted to take the leadership once again?  He’s already said how Plaid worked well with Labour, could Plaid under him find itself in perpetual coalition with Labour?

Elin Jones: One of the Plaid ministers in the previous Government, I think Elin would be a popular leader with both left and right in the party.

Or could there be a surprise contender?  Interesting times.

Who will win Montgomeryshire?

Montgomeryshire

With electioneering in full swing right across Wales I thought it timely to discuss the way things look in the constituency I live in.  As I have already mentioned in an earlier post, I have already cast my vote via postal ballot where I voted for David Senior (Plaid Cymru).  I believe that Plaid are the only group in the Assembly that could offer an alternative to a Labour government.  The Tories have no experience in WAG, and as for the Lib Dems, well their share of seats will either remain the same or, as expected decrease.

However, in Montgomeryshire there are two plausible outcomes to this election, either Wyn Williams, the Lib Dem candidate, or Russell George, the Tory candidate will win.  As many of you will know the Tories took the seat from the Lib Dems in the 2010 Westminster election, and so are riding high off that victory.   Lib Dems have had bad press in the area over the last few years with Lembit Opik (as seen on TV – and any other two bit reality show / tabloid newspaper) and his exploits, and of course the incident between the former AM, Mick Bates and paramedics.

The situation for the Lib Dems isn’t helped by the fact that the Tory that already represents Montgomeryshire in Westmister is a popular individual.  Glyn Davies MP (and former AM) has earned great respect amongst many in the county accross the political spectrum.  Glyn has managed to raise his profile, and that of the Tories in the county with his campaign against proposed plans for windmills and electric pylons in the county which has certainly reflected well on Russell George.

It should also be noted that it is only Russell George placards that can be seen along the roads around Llanidloes and Newtown.  I know such a sentence can easily be hyperbole, but I have literally seen no poster nor placard in support of Wyn Williams up anywhere, up to this point anyway.

So I gingerly raise my head above the parapet here to say that in my opinion it will be Russell George and Montgomeryshire Tories who will be celebrating come May 6th.